The Arctic’s “Last Ice Area” (LIA), a vital refuge for species reliant on sea ice, is facing an imminent threat of disappearing within the next decade, according to recent findings from a McGill University study. This shift may occur when the central Arctic Ocean becomes ice-free during the summer months, a phenomenon expected by mid-century. This revelation, detailed in a new paper published in Communications Earth & Environment, emphasizes a rapid, unsettling change that could significantly affect Arctic wildlife and ecosystems.
The Importance of the Last Ice Area
The LIA, located in the high Arctic north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, has been considered a key refuge for ice-dependent and ice-obligate species—animals that rely on sea ice for survival. These include polar bears, walruses, bearded seals, ringed seals, and migratory birds like the ivory gull. For these species, the ice provides crucial breeding, hunting, and resting grounds. As the climate warms and sea ice shrinks, the LIA has become one of the last strongholds of thick, perennial sea ice that forms part of the ecological web sustaining Arctic wildlife.
In 2019, in recognition of its ecological significance, the Canadian government designated a portion of the LIA as the Tuvaijuittuq Marine Protected Area. This region, located just north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, was earmarked for interim protection as part of the effort to safeguard the ice and its dependent species. In August 2024, Canadian authorities extended this interim protection for up to five years, giving more time to engage in long-term conservation planning.
This move is part of broader efforts by environmental organizations such as the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), which has been advocating for the protection of the entire LIA to preserve this essential habitat for the long term. Additionally, Inuit communities, who depend on Arctic resources and hold deep cultural ties to the environment, are strongly invested in protecting this vulnerable region.
New Research Challenges Prior Predictions
Earlier research based on lower-resolution climate models had suggested that the Last Ice Area might survive for several more decades beyond when the central Arctic Ocean is predicted to be ice-free. However, the recent study led by Madeleine Fol, a Master of Science graduate from McGill University, used high-resolution models to produce a more accurate, sobering forecast. This study suggests the region could lose much of its thick, enduring ice much sooner, potentially within the next decade.
“These new findings highlight the urgent need to take significant action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate warming,” said Fol. “If warming continues unchecked, the projections for the LIA may become unstable much faster than previously predicted.”
The key to these findings lies in the improved simulation models that factor in the transportation of sea ice through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. As global temperatures rise, the research now indicates that much of the remaining ice in the LIA could flow southward through the Archipelago, where it enters warmer waters, leading to accelerated melting. This process, termed “flushing,” could rapidly diminish the ice thickness, causing the LIA to effectively vanish within a relatively short period of time, at most over a decade.
What’s at Stake for Arctic Species
The faster loss of the LIA poses serious challenges for the survival of Arctic species that rely on it. Many of these species, including the polar bear, are highly specialized for life in ice-dominated habitats. For example, polar bears use the sea ice as a platform for hunting seals, their primary food source. As the ice breaks apart and moves away from shorelines, these bears are forced to move further distances to find food, leading to nutritional stress and even mortality.
Other species, like the bearded seals and walruses, depend on the sea ice as resting and breeding platforms. Walruses, in particular, need ice floes to haul out, as well as safe spaces to give birth. The loss of this critical environment could destabilize the entire food chain, triggering consequences for the region’s biodiversity.
Species like ivory gulls and beluga whales also depend on sea ice as part of their migratory paths and foraging territories. The changes in ice dynamics not only alter the physical habitat of these animals but also lead to longer-term shifts in behavior, migration patterns, and reproduction rates.
Contributing to the Urgency of Climate Action
The research team, including Bruno Tremblay, Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Studies at McGill University, highlights that the ice’s longevity depends heavily on maintaining a cooler, stable environment. “Conserving the thick ice of the LIA is critical to its survival,” said Tremblay. “It creates a barrier that slows the flow of ice through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, effectively helping it resist the warmer waters that otherwise expedite melting.”
Unfortunately, as the climate continues to warm, maintaining such a barrier may no longer be feasible. With increasingly larger areas of the central Arctic Ocean becoming ice-free each summer, even the thickest of the remaining ice sheets could succumb to the forces of warming waters and rising temperatures.
The idea that the ice could wash away so quickly emphasizes the urgency with which climate policies need to be enacted. Without swift action to reduce global carbon emissions, particularly from fossil fuels, the LIA—and with it, the Arctic ecosystem—could lose critical resilience, resulting in the destabilization of a vital region that many species depend on for survival.
The Role of Indigenous and Global Communities
The future of the Last Ice Area affects not only the wildlife it shelters but also the communities that rely on the region for subsistence, cultural practices, and traditional knowledge. Inuit communities in Canada have a long history of living and interacting with the Arctic environment, and their engagement is crucial in developing solutions that reflect both local and global conservation priorities. Inuit traditional knowledge has already helped guide conservation efforts, and these communities are among the strongest advocates for safeguarding the LIA’s future.
Additionally, organizations like the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) play a critical role in mobilizing both political and financial support for the protection of this vulnerable area. Through advocacy, education, and research, WWF seeks to engage governments, businesses, and local communities in building a comprehensive strategy for the long-term preservation of the LIA and its species.
In this light, the work of environmental advocates and policymakers to secure protections for the LIA in the short and long term becomes vital. The establishment of marine protected areas and interim protections by the Canadian government is a step in the right direction, but the urgency of the situation requires increased focus and more aggressive conservation actions to buffer the entire Arctic ecosystem from the harm of ongoing warming.
Conclusion
The Last Ice Area holds profound significance in the context of Arctic conservation and wildlife protection. As one of the last regions to maintain thick, perennial sea ice, it provides an irreplaceable refuge for a variety of species. However, with new findings showing that the LIA could disappear far sooner than expected, the urgency of addressing climate change has never been more pressing.
As global temperatures rise, preserving the LIA—and the animals it supports—requires unprecedented levels of collaboration between governments, indigenous communities, scientists, and environmental organizations. It is imperative that steps be taken not only to slow the rate of warming but to prepare for the inevitable changes that will shape the Arctic’s future. The stability of the Last Ice Area, and the resilience of its ecosystem, will depend on the actions taken today to protect one of the planet’s most fragile, yet vital, habitats.
Reference: Madeleine Fol et al, Revisiting the Last Ice Area projections from a high-resolution Global Earth System Model, Communications Earth & Environment (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02034-5