The concept of an “intention economy,” where human desires and decisions are identified, influenced, and commodified before individuals are even fully aware of them, represents a profound shift in the digital landscape. This emerging field, as described by researchers at the University of Cambridge, particularly from the Leverhulme Center for the Future of Intelligence (LCFI), signifies the next frontier in the relationship between technology and human behavior. It is characterized by the use of artificial intelligence (AI) to analyze and predict human intentions, turning these nascent desires into a tradable commodity. While this has the potential to revolutionize industries and offer unprecedented convenience, it also raises serious ethical, social, and political concerns.
At its core, the intention economy builds upon the existing attention economy, which has long dominated the internet. In the attention economy, platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube have thrived by capturing and monetizing user attention. However, as this market becomes saturated and less profitable, the focus is shifting to a more granular and forward-looking approach: targeting human motivations and aspirations. AI-driven systems, particularly generative AI and large language models (LLMs), are being developed to infer, analyze, and even manipulate human intentions in real time, creating a marketplace where these intentions can be sold to the highest bidder.
The foundation of this new economy lies in the immense data-gathering capabilities of modern AI. Unlike traditional methods of analyzing user behavior, intention economy technologies delve deeper into the subtleties of human interaction. AI assistants, ranging from conversational chatbots to digital tutors and even virtual companions, collect vast amounts of psychological and behavioral data through informal and natural dialogue. These systems are designed to be anthropomorphic, mimicking human personalities and establishing a sense of trust and familiarity. This allows them to engage users on an intimate level, creating an environment ripe for influence and manipulation.
Researchers warn that the implications of such systems extend far beyond commercial advertising. The ability to forecast and steer human intentions could have profound effects on democratic processes, market competition, and individual autonomy. For example, political campaigns could use AI to subtly nudge voters toward specific candidates, undermining the principles of free and fair elections. Similarly, corporations could manipulate consumers into making purchasing decisions that serve their interests, potentially at the expense of the consumer’s well-being or financial stability.
The commercialization of human intentions is already beginning to take shape. Several major tech companies have signaled their interest in developing tools to analyze and predict user intent. For instance, in 2023, OpenAI published a blog post calling for data that expresses human intention across various formats and languages. That same year, Shopify’s director of product discussed chatbots designed to explicitly capture user intent. Nvidia’s CEO has spoken about using LLMs to understand human desires, and Meta has developed datasets, such as “Intentonomy,” aimed at refining human intent analysis. Apple’s 2024 “App Intents” framework represents another step in this direction, allowing developers to predict user actions and suggest apps based on anticipated needs.
The technological capabilities underlying the intention economy are advancing rapidly. AI models such as Meta’s CICERO have already demonstrated the ability to infer and predict human intent in complex scenarios, such as the game Diplomacy, which requires strategic thinking and persuasive dialogue. These developments highlight the potential for AI to influence decision-making processes on a broad scale, from everyday consumer choices to critical life decisions.
While these advancements are undeniably impressive, they also raise significant ethical and societal questions. One major concern is the potential erosion of personal autonomy. When AI systems are capable of predicting and steering our intentions before we are even aware of them, the line between free will and manipulation becomes blurred. This raises questions about the nature of consent and the extent to which individuals can truly control their decisions in an environment dominated by persuasive technologies.
Another concern is the potential for exploitation and inequality. The intention economy is likely to be dominated by a few major corporations with the resources to develop and deploy these advanced AI systems. This concentration of power could exacerbate existing inequalities, as smaller companies and individual consumers may find themselves at the mercy of these tech giants. Additionally, the commodification of human intentions could lead to a form of digital colonization, where personal data and desires are harvested and sold without meaningful consent or compensation.
The impact on democratic processes and societal norms is another area of concern. The use of AI to influence voting behavior, for example, could undermine the integrity of elections and erode public trust in democratic institutions. Similarly, the manipulation of consumer behavior could lead to a culture of hyper-commercialization, where every aspect of life is viewed through the lens of market potential.
To address these challenges, researchers emphasize the need for regulation and public awareness. Dr. Yaqub Chaudhary from Cambridge’s LCFI warns that the unchecked development of intention economy technologies could lead to a “gold rush” for those seeking to profit from human desires, with potentially devastating consequences for society. Dr. Jonnie Penn, also from LCFI, underscores the importance of proactive measures to mitigate these risks, advocating for policies that prioritize transparency, accountability, and ethical considerations in the development and deployment of AI systems.
Public awareness is a critical component of this effort. By understanding the capabilities and implications of intention economy technologies, individuals can make more informed decisions about how they interact with AI systems and the companies that deploy them. Education and advocacy are essential to ensure that the benefits of these technologies are realized while minimizing their potential harms.
Ultimately, the intention economy represents both a significant opportunity and a profound challenge. On the one hand, the ability to anticipate and meet human needs could lead to unprecedented levels of convenience, efficiency, and personalization. On the other hand, the commodification of human intentions raises serious ethical and societal concerns that must be addressed to prevent unintended consequences. As researchers point out, the future of the intention economy will depend on the choices we make today—choices that will shape the role of AI in our lives and the values that underpin our digital society. By fostering a culture of accountability, transparency, and ethical innovation, we can navigate this new frontier in a way that benefits all of humanity.
Reference: Beware the Intention Economy: Collection and Commodification of Intent via Large Language Models, Harvard Data Science Review (2024). DOI: 10.1162/99608f92.21e6bbaa