In the world of science fiction, authors often draw on scientific principles to create compelling narratives. However, few authors delve as deeply into the science as Ian Tregillis, a physicist working at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and his collaboration with George R.R. Martin, one of the co-authors of the Wild Cards series. What sets Tregillis apart is not merely his background in physics, but his unique approach to modeling the fictional virus that lies at the heart of the Wild Cards universe. He went so far as to derive a formula to explain the viral dynamics of this imaginative alien phenomenon, a model that would later be published in the American Journal of Physics.
Wild Cards, a collaborative science fiction anthology series edited by Martin and Melinda M. Snodgrass, has become a staple of the genre. Spanning over 30 volumes, the books explore an alternate history where a strange alien virus called the Wild Card begins to mutate human DNA. This mutation causes certain people to gain extraordinary abilities, while others face dire consequences, resulting in a division between those who can become “aces” and those who turn into “jokers.” The virus creates a complex dynamic among the characters, leading to dramatic narratives about power, morality, and societal challenges.
The Science Behind the Fiction
The idea of creating a scientific model for the fictional Wild Card virus emerged in the unlikeliest of places—a blog. After years of readers exploring the series and speculating about the virus’s workings, Tregillis took to the Wild Cards website, where he began making back-of-the-envelope calculations about the virus’ behavior. What started as playful speculation evolved into the realization that the virus’ dynamics might be modeled more formally—scientifically.
“If anything, like any physicist, I started with back-of-the-envelope estimates,” Tregillis shared, “but then I went off the deep end. Eventually, I suggested—only half-jokingly—that it might be easier to write a genuine physics paper than another blog post.” As someone steeped in theoretical physics, Tregillis was curious whether he could reduce the complexities of the Wild Card virus to a basic, understandable model, one that would provide a sense of how the virus’ outcomes could be quantified.
As the idea took root, Tregillis was joined by none other than George R.R. Martin, known for his work on the A Song of Ice and Fire series and his editorial role in the Wild Cards saga. Martin, fascinated by Tregillis’s exploration of the virus’s dynamics, became a co-author for the research, ultimately culminating in their American Journal of Physics paper, which marked Martin’s very first peer-reviewed publication in the realm of physics.
Deriving the Formula: From Speculation to Publication
The crux of the paper lies in Tregillis’ derivation of a formula using Lagrangian mechanics, a powerful method in theoretical physics. The Lagrangian formulation is an approach that focuses on the ways a system can evolve, rather than just tracking the specific positions of particles or objects. It also emphasizes energy conservation, a central theme in understanding dynamics. By applying the Lagrangian method, Tregillis and Martin could take the abstract problem of the virus’s mutation and translate it into a well-defined mathematical model, describing how the Wild Card virus might behave over time.
The derivation was not a simple process but rather an intellectual adventure that required a careful balance of creativity and rigor. Tregillis explained that the approach was both enjoyable and open-ended, as they tested several models based on things like fractals and thermodynamic analogies, only to find them unsatisfactory. Eventually, they settled on the Lagrangian approach, a model that helped translate a chaotic system (such as the Wild Card virus’s effect on human genetics) into a more deterministic framework.
The viral model essentially examines how the system of mutations evolves under the influence of certain dynamic conditions. What was once an element of the Wild Cards storyline became the subject of rigorous scientific thought. Tregillis describes their process: “We translated the abstract problem of Wild Card viral outcomes into a simple, concrete dynamical system. The time-averaged behavior of this system generates the statistical distribution of outcomes.” In short, by applying principles of statistical mechanics, Tregillis and Martin could theoretically predict the distribution of mutations (e.g., whether someone would become an ace or a joker) and even account for the spread and consequences of the virus.
Blurring the Lines: Fiction and Reality in Scientific Modeling
One of the remarkable aspects of the formula that Tregillis derived is how it blends fiction with scientific rigor. By finding a way to model a fictional system based on real physics principles, Tregillis made the fictional virus feel more tangible, almost as if it could happen in the real world, if the conditions were right.
However, Tregillis was quick to clarify that this equation does not dictate the outcome for every event in the Wild Cards universe. The formula was never intended to serve as a rigid rulebook for the fictional world. “Good storytelling is about characters: their wants, needs, obstacles, challenges, and how they interact with their world,” Tregillis said. He noted that the Wild Card virus was never meant to be a scientifically accurate depiction of viral behavior—it was a plot device meant to facilitate character-driven narratives and conflicts. This means that, while the formula can generate insights about how the virus might work from a physical standpoint, it isn’t an ironclad rule when it comes to the events within the fictional universe.
Implications for Education and Popularization of Science
Beyond its impact on Wild Cards fans and the science fiction community, Tregillis’s work demonstrates how theoretical physics can become an educational tool. By grounding fictional concepts in the Lagrangian formulation, Tregillis and Martin created a story that goes beyond mere entertainment. In this way, the Wild Cards research offers an exciting entry point for students, scholars, and curious readers who may otherwise find theoretical physics inaccessible.
The publication of the paper in the American Journal of Physics showcases how science fiction can be a bridge between creative fiction and real scientific inquiry. The modeling of a viral system serves as both a teaching opportunity and an example of how ideas grounded in literature can contribute to science. The blending of fiction and science allows readers to approach complex topics, such as statistical mechanics and Lagrangian dynamics, from a fresh perspective—a narrative one.
A Unique Collaboration
What makes this collaboration between Tregillis, Martin, and other authors of Wild Cards particularly interesting is its confluence of multiple worlds: literature, physics, and peer-reviewed academia. As one of the central figures behind A Song of Ice and Fire, Martin might seem an unlikely co-author for a physics paper. Yet, his passion for exploring every aspect of his universe makes his contribution to the research entirely fitting. Martin’s interest in the science behind Wild Cards reinforces his meticulous world-building skills and his engagement with not just storylines, but scientific nuances.
While Wild Cards remains a fictional series of interconnected stories, Tregillis and Martin’s venture into the scientific domain encourages readers to think more critically about the implications of speculative fiction. Instead of simply fantasizing about fantastical worlds, this collaboration brings speculative science fiction closer to the realm of real-world theoretical problems.
Conclusion
The journey from blog post to peer-reviewed publication represents a fascinating fusion of speculative fiction and scientific inquiry. Ian Tregillis’s decision to model the virus at the heart of the Wild Cards universe using legitimate physics principles showcases how deeply scientific exploration can be embedded into fictional narratives. By choosing to apply real methods from the world of theoretical physics, Tregillis and Martin have introduced a scientifically grounded lens through which to better understand the fictional dynamics of the Wild Card virus.
Ultimately, though, as Tregillis points out, this theoretical model is not just about equations—it’s about what the virus represents within the larger tapestry of storytelling. Whether it’s an exploration of genetics, societal impact, or the depths of human conflict, the Wild Card virus remains a narrative vehicle. The inclusion of a physicist’s touch enriches the world, making it more immersive and engaging for the readers. Tregillis’s viral model, published in an academic journal, thus enhances both our understanding of the science behind science fiction and the creative storytelling that drives it forward.
Reference: Ergodic Lagrangian dynamics in a superhero universe, American Journal of Physics (2025). DOI: 10.1119/5.0228859